The DSEX index has made several attempts to break the horizontal zone of 5945-5970 Points. But it has been unsuccessful in breaking the zone.
After reaching the highest point of the last uptrend at 5966.5 on July 15, 2026, we saw several upper wicks, especially near the 5903-5945 level, as prices tried to break the previous high.
The key question on every investor’s mind is: what could be the next possible move from here?
In today’s post, we’ll explore the key driving factors that could determine whether the price breaks through the recently formed flag pattern or continues to trade within its boundaries.
If the price continues to face rejection at the upper boundary of the flag, we could see a short-term correction toward the lower boundary of the pattern.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the upper trendline could signal further upside potential.
Key Driving Factors: External factors that are going to be a concern!
- US-IRAN WAR: Middle East Crisis-Driven Crude Oil Price Uncertainty
- Internal: Electricity & gas-driven load shedding impact
- Regulatory Affairs: Margin Rules Issue: Notification & Clarification of marginable securities, especially on "B" category shares and Life Insurance & MF Sectors.
- TA Concern of Expected Deep Zonal Correction and Backtest
Let's dig into the factors!
US-IRAN WAR: Middle East Crisis-Driven Crude Oil Price Uncertainty
As negotiations between Iran and Oman failed to yield a positive outcome, hopes for a successful US–Iran agreement remain uncertain. There is also no clear indication that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in the coming days. Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures are expected to remain elevated, with prices potentially closing the week above $88.
Meanwhile, tensions are also escalating between the Saudi-led alliance and the Houthis over the safe passage of oil tankers through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding another layer of geopolitical risk to the global oil market.
From a technical analysis (TA) perspective, a decisive breakout above the channel resistance in the $90 zone, followed by sustained trading above that level, could open the door for another move toward $100.
On the downside, the nearest significant support level appears to be around $79.
If oil prices remain elevated over the coming weeks or months, the pressure will inevitably begin to weigh on Bangladesh’s long-term macroeconomic outlook.
The situation is already showing signs of deterioration, with disruptions in gas supplies adding to the pressure from higher oil prices.
Together, these factors could further increase energy costs, strain the balance of payments, and create additional challenges for the broader economy.
